The fifth episode of SANEM Netizen Forum on COVID-19 Pandemic took place on 2 May 2020, Saturday at 2 pm on Zoom video conferencing platform. The forum was moderated by Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. The SANEM Panel included Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Research Director of SANEM, Mr. Mahtab Uddin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Research Fellow of SANEM, and, Ms. Farazi Binti Ferdous, National Consultant at FAO Bangladesh and Research Fellow of SANEM. The episode was live-streamed on the Facebook page of SANEM.
Dr. Raihan expressed his concern that the spread of the pandemic in Bangladesh has not been slowing down. He also briefly discussed the debate around ongoing lockdown around the world. The problem in enforcing the lockdown reflects the institutional weaknesses existing in Bangladesh. Dr. Raihan briefed the forum about SANEM’s recent research on Poverty Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh. As he shared the findings of SANEM’s study with the participants, he explained how the pandemic can overturn Bangladesh’s decades of achievement in poverty reduction. SANEM’s initial findings show that the poverty rate in the country could be doubled from the existing 20.5 per cent to more than 40 per cent during this pandemic. The pandemic can push a significant portion of the country’s vulnerable poor population into long-term poverty. For combating the crisis, Dr Raihan welcomed the stimulus packages already undertaken by the Government. However, he opined that, while transferring the aid to the poor the policy should not focus on cash transfer as the only mechanism. Rather, it should also rely on the existing in-kind social transfers. There could be some areas/regions where people might not have access to market or access to the market could be severely hampered by the lockdown. Therefore, the existing in-kind transfer programmes (such as the VGF, OMS) should be strengthened further covering newly poor as well as vulnerable poor households. However, he emphasized the necessity of monitoring the cash and food distribution programs both at the local and national levels. Dr. Raihan praised the numerous relief efforts initiated by Bangladeshi youth and remarked that the private sector must step up in this regard.
During the discussion, the forum came up with the following suggestions and proposals. The points mentioned here are the reflections of the Forum’s views or opinions.
1. There has been incongruence in the directives of BGMEA. Strict instructions from the Government regarding the workers’ health and safety that must be followed by the factory owners are thus necessary. Laying off workers should be stopped. Government and garments factory owners can share the burden of salaries for workers during this crisis period. The spread of infection in factories can result in Bangladesh losing its international market. For ensuring the safety of the export-oriented manufacturing sector workers, the government should produce region-specific and sector-specific health protocols.
2. Before easing the lockdown in Bangladesh the number of daily tests runs in each district should increase by several folds. Bangladesh could follow the path of the East Asian countries such as Vietnam and South Korea, where the governments emphasized testing and contact tracing.
3, So far, Bangladesh has been following the European model of lockdown. Given the different country contexts, Bangladesh needs to develop its own model of lockdown and similar measures to contain the virus.
4. Bangladesh is facing a liquidity shortage. However, the injection of money in the economy in the form of money printing should be considered as the last resort.
5. In the upcoming budget, the Government must focus on the health sector and social safety net programmes. Even if it requires a wider budget deficit, the government should take that path. The Government should not hesitate in deficit financing. The upcoming budget might have a higher deficit than the last couple of years; however, the government must not hesitate to implement it.
6. Bangladesh’s Debt GDP ratio is comparatively lower than many other countries, including the South Asian comparators. The current account balance of the country is modest, the debt GDP ratio is moderate, and the foreign reserve is sufficient enough to meet several months of import payments. Under this context, Bangladesh is comparatively at a better standing at the global financial market in terms of exploring the option of issuing sovereign bonds. However, the government needs to be extra cautious to avail of this avenue as misuse of this instrument might bring catastrophic consequences in the long run.
7. The plummeted oil prices in the international market have two folds effects. At one hand, a large portion of our migrant workers is in the Gulf countries. A fall in oil prices might cause a fall in inflow in remittances from those countries. At the other hand, due to the oil price fall, the BPC will have surplus earnings during this time. If the oil price in the country is not lowered, the profit earned from this price fall should be used by the Government to finance the social transfer programme. This can be a source of revenue for the Government at this time.
List of Participants :
1. Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka
2. Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Research Director, South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka
3. Mahtab Uddin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka
4. Faisal Seraj, Country Representative, The Asia Foundation
5. Sovik Mukherjee, Assistant Professor in Economics, St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata
6. Mohammed Shahidul Islam, Deputy General Manager, Rahimafrooz Bangladesh Limited
7. Nazrul Islam, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Rabindra University, Bangladesh
8. Farjana Eyasmin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Pabna University of Science and Technology
9. Mir Ashrafun Nahar, Research Associate, SANEM
10. Farian Tahrim, Management Trainee Officer, Trust Bank Limited
11. Md. Ekramul Islam, Private Service, Atelier Sourcing Ltd.
12. Mohammad Rubel Mia, International Young Professional, NOREC
13. Golam Kibria Limon, Student, University of Rajshahi
14. Rafiul Ahmed, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
15. Zahin Ferdous Maesha, Student, Bangladesh University of Professionals
16. Shadique Mahbub Islam, Student, University of Dhaka
17. Shaugat Ashraf Khan, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
18. Shariful Islam Arvi, Student, NITER
19. Sayed Arafat Zubayer, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
20. Kazi Mahir Tajwar, Student, Jahangirnagar University
21. Mehedi Hasan, Student, Jahangirnagar University
22. Jasia Tahzeeda, Student, BRAC University
23. Rakib Khondker, Student, Rabindra University, Bangladesh
24. Ashib Uddin Emo, Student, Jagannath Universitu
25. Md. Belal Hossain, Student, Dhaka School of Economics
26. Sakib Mahmud, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
27. G.M. Atik Shahriar, Student, University of Dhaka
28. Kanjilal Roy Jibon, Student, University of Dhaka
29. Md. Rashidul Alom, Procurement Specialist, Kaliakoir Hi-Tech Park Project, ICT Division
30. Md. Ashraful Alom, Student, Rabindra University, Bangladesh
31. Mahtab Uddin, Student, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science & Technology University
32. Md. Nurul Kabir Sohag, Banker, Trust Bank ltd.
33. Ashraf Uddin, Student, Noakhali Science and Technology University
34. Afia Mubasshira Tiasha, Student, Jagannath Universit
35. Salman Ibn Yasin, Student, Pabna University of Science and Technology
